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Breaking down the latest Rand Paul poll

March 7, 2010

If you haven’t  heard yet, Rand Paul has opened up a huge lead in the polls, courtesy of Survey USA. The poll has Dr. Paul defeating Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson 42% to 27%. Among the numerous questions asked to the respondents, Secretary Grayson leads Paul only among those who do not own guns. Here is a pie chart for the Republican Primary:

Breakdown of the Republican Primary

Rand Paul beats Trey Grayson by at least double digits among every race, age group, gender, education level and religious level. It also seems the attacks on Dr. Paul on his abortion issue have made little impact on the voters, as Paul wins the pro-life vote 44-28, even a slightly larger lead than his overall leads. Grayson beats Paul 38-31 by those who do not own a gun. Rand Paul performs strongest in Western Kentucky (50-21) and weakest in North-Central Kentucky (40-31). Clearly, Rand Paul wins the “conservative” ideology tag easily (45-27), but it is slightly closer with moderates (41-31).

Overall, Dr. Paul essentially dominates across the board in the Republican Primaries. However, it is becoming clear that the winner of the Republican Primary will also face a tough general election battle. In the question: “if the general election were held today, would you vote for a republican candidate or a democratic candidate?” The result was a statistical tie at 43% to 42% in favor of the Republican.

Results from the general election.

If this poll has showed us anything, it is that Rand Paul has to continue to work. Those who consider themselves “moderate” in political ideology flock to the democratic candidate to the tune of 54-30. That tells us Republicans have to work harder to show there is an alternative to out of control spending and rising deficits.

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One Comment
  1. Johnson’s vote (5%) will move to Rand when they figure Johnson can’t win.

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